Doubling Bet Until You Win
Table Of Contents
Are you looking for the best blackjack strategy to maximise your winning odds when you play online? You'll love these tips.
His idea is that basically you keep doubling your bet until you win and then start over again. So for example, you bet 1 dollar and you lose, your net profit is now -1 dollar. Now you double your bet to 2 dollars and you lose again so your net profit is -3 dollars. Now you double your bet to 4 dollars and you win. On each loss, the bet is doubled. Thus, taking k as the number of preceding consecutive losses, the player will always bet 2 k units. With a win on any given spin, the gambler will net 1 unit over the total amount wagered to that point. Once this win is achieved, the gambler restarts the system with a 1 unit bet. When that happens, you double your bet for the next spin and keep doubling your bet until you win. While doubling your bet may help you recover the money you lost, it’s an extremely risky strategy. Say you bet $10 on red and lost.
Finding a way to get higher chances to win at blackjack shouldn't be so hard.
Placing Bets & Doubling Up You start with a small amount, preferably the table minimum, and keep betting the same until you lose. When this occurs, double the size of your bet for the next spin. This way, in case you win, you will recover the money you lost on the previous round, and win something extra.
The basic strategy is the best way to play blackjack — and when you combine it with some strategy tips on bankroll management and what to do after you win, you have really reached the maximum you can.
In other words, if you are looking for the best blackjack betting strategy to increase your chances to win, you'll love this guide.
In the parts that follow you will find:
- And lots more
We also put together a collection of the best bonuses to play online. This way, you can use those freebies to test the blackjack basic strategy and all the tips in this article.
EXCLUSIVE: Claim Your Bonus and Play!Register a FREE account and claim your bonus to play online blackjack!
What this guide is NOT
- A collection of tips to win at blackjack
- A list of systems that promise to make blackjack profitable
- The illusion that you can beat the game
Blackjack is a gambling game where the casino has an advantage. It doesn't matter what approach you take or what blackjack strategy you follow. In the long run, the casino always wins.
Why Follow a Blackjack Betting Strategy?
Let's face it - we have all been there. We have all looked for the best and the most effective strategy to win at blackjack after we lost our first hands online.
With the right blackjack strategy it's possible to increase your winning chances, and that's because blackjack isn't a gambling game like roulette, video poker, or slots.
If you follow the basic betting strategy and you learn how to use the information you have at your disposal, you can reach optimal play giving yourself the best chances to win include in the game.
Professional players have worked hard to 'solve' the game of blackjack and find how to play each hand to get the best winning odds.
They analysed how the number of decks in play affects your chances to win and how you can make the best decision based on the cards you see on the table.
- That's what they call the 'blackjack basic strategy. A list of dos and don'ts where you find exactly how you are supposed to play each and every hand you are dealt.
This is the best strategy for blackjack.
The goal of the blackjack basic strategy isn't to help you win at blackjack every time you play. That's impossible. Instead, it is to help you maximize your winning chances and to minimize your losses.
Doubling Bet Until You Win
That's also the goal of this guide. We don't list all the strategies for blackjack out there. Instead, we focus only on the best blackjack strategies that are known to work and should help you get better results when you play.
Starting from the tips and tricks included in our cheat-sheet.
READ ALSO: How to play online blackjack with friends.
What Is the Blackjack Basic Strategy?
Knowing how to manage your money is as important in blackjack as it is in all gambling games. A correct 'bankroll management' is essential when you play — regardless of the blackjack strategies you apply to your games.
Knowing how to bet (and how much) and how to select the right game when you play online blackjack for real money is extremely important.
Once you have those basics covered, you can move into the basic blackjack strategy and learn how you are supposed to invest your money once the dealer gives you the initial two cards.
As soon as the cards reach you and the dealer opens one of their cards, you have to make your first choice. In a game of blackjack, that means you need to pick one of these options:
- Stand
- Hit
- Double
- Split
- Surrender
Do you know why the basic blackjack strategy is also considered to be the best way to discover how to win at blackjack? Because it uses basic logic.
Would you hit if your first two cards gave you 20 points? Of course not.
Would you stand if your starting hand was worth five points? Not a chance.
While these choices are very simple on hands like the ones I use in my example, things get (a lot) more complicated with different cards on the table.
Let me give you a few examples.
- How do you play soft 17 in blackjack?
- When do you hit on a 16?
- What to do with 15 in blackjack?
This is where the basic blackjack strategy comes in to help you get the best chances to win.
This collection of tips shows you the optimal play for every blackjack hands, calculating your winning odds in combination with the dealer's open card.
The basic strategy to win at blackjack has nothing to do with concepts like card counting or any of those tricks some 'clever' players adopt to beat the house.
This is a simple-to-use guideline that shows you exactly how you are supposed to play every possible hand of blackjack. Use it to know when it is recommended to hit, to stand, or to do something else.
Hard totals | ||||||||||
Dealer's card > | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A |
Player's hand | ||||||||||
17-20 | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
16 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | SU | SU | SU |
15 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | SU | H |
13-14 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
12 | H | H | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
11 | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | H |
10 | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | H | H |
9 | H | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | H | H | H | H | H |
5-8 | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H |
Soft totals | ||||||||||
Dealer's card > | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A |
A,8-A,9 | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
A,7 | S | Ds | Ds | Ds | Ds | S | S | H | H | H |
A,6 | H | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | H | H | H | H | H |
A,4-A,5 | H | H | Dh | Dh | Dh | H | H | H | H | H |
A,2-A,3 | H | H | H | Dh | Dh | H | H | H | H | H |
Pairs | ||||||||||
Dealer's card > | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A |
A,A | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP |
10,10 | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
9,9 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | S | SP | SP | S | S |
8,8 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP |
7,7 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | H | H | H | H |
6,6 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | H | H | H | H | H |
5,5 | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | Dh | H | H |
4,4 | H | H | H | SP | SP | H | H | H | H | H |
2,2-3,3 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | H | H | H | H |
Key:
S = Stand
H = Hit
Dh = Double (if not allowed, then hit)
Ds = Double (if not allowed, then stand)
SP = Split
SU = Surrender (if not allowed, then hit)
A Blackjack Cheat Sheet
To make things even easier for you and help you follow the best betting strategy whenever you play blackjack, we created a quick cheat-sheet with the basic strategy explained in full.
Download the blackjack cheat-sheet (it's free) and print it or save it on your mobile phone to keep it always with you when you play.
The blackjack basic strategy cheat-sheet is 100% legal and you can use it both when you play online and at a brick-and-mortar casino.
A Conservative Blackjack Strategy
Don't play high-stakes games unless you feel ready for them and you have enough money to spend on online games.
If you are reading this blackjack strategy guide and you are a beginner, you should be afraid of high-stakes games.
When you spend too much money on your games, you risk getting the opposite of what you want. You play to have fun and to find out how to get more chances to win at blackjack - and you end broke and frustrated.
The best way to play blackjack is to start with what I call a conservative approach. Because finding the right way top handle betting in blackjack is key to long-term fun.
Like many blackjack strategies suggest, you should increase the stakes only when things go well and any potential losses are compensated by the money you have already won, not the one you might win if you get lucky.
In other words, raise your bet every time you win.
Many players believe wins and losses come in streaks. They think you might lose five or six times in a row — but when you win…you are not going to do it just once.
Obviously, that's not true.
Blackjack is a gambling game and there are no patterns for you to exploit or streaks that you can use to win more money every time you play.
There are, however, smart betting strategies like the basic blackjack strategy that can help you increase the chances of a victory.
With that in mind, a conservative blackjack strategy works like this:
- Start from the lowest bet (e.g. $1)
- Increase your bet by 1 unit only after you win
- Go back to the original bet after you lose
When you use this blackjack strategy, you need to go back to the original bet as soon as you lose one hand. This is the best way to be in control of your money and end a gaming session in the black.
All you need to do is to make the right choices (use the basic strategy) and raise your stakes little by little - but only when you win.
READ ALSO: Bets sites to play live dealer blackjack online.
An Aggressive Approach to Blackjack: the Martingale Strategy
The Martingale betting strategy sits at the opposite side of the spectrum. This is the perfect blackjack strategy for those players who:
- Play blackjack to win a lot of money
- Can afford to lose a lot of money
- Don't fear the swing of big losses
In other words, this is the perfect blackjack strategy for big spenders but isn't one that you should try if you are still a beginner who is looking for ways to learn how to play blackjack.
The Martingale blackjack strategy is expensive. This is a blackjack system that will help you win often - but only when I have a lot of money to invest on your games.
If you can't spend at least $500 on your games - the Martingale is not the best blackjack strategy for you.
But if you do — continue reading to discover how to use this betting strategy to increase your chances to win.
In short:
The Martingale strategy is the exact opposite of the conservative approach to betting in blackjack we have just seen.
When you follow this strategy, you need to double your bet every time you lose. Which, in case of a losing streak, can become very expensive very quickly.
The rationale of this audacious blackjack betting strategy is that you will need only one win to go back to square one and recoup all your losses in one hand.
The caveat is: your bankroll needs to be deep enough for you to play and play until that one win comes.
Again, this isn't a betting strategy for beginners. If you decide to try it, make sure your bankroll covers at least 10 consecutive losses from the hand #1.
1-3-2-6 Blackjack Betting System
The 1-3-2-6 blackjack betting strategy is not as exciting as the Martingale strategy, and that's a good thing. This betting strategy doesn't require a huge bankroll and is a lot more suitable for players looking for a way to have better chances to win at blackjack without investing a fortune in the game.
The numbers in the strategy's name indicate the way you should bet after you win a hand of blackjack.
You first winning is the trigger that starts the sequence while your first losing hand is the one that ends everything.
This blackjack betting strategy is built to get the most value out of winning streaks. If you are lucky enough to use it at the beginning of a four-hand winning streak, you are in for a treat.
READ ALSO: How to play blackjack for beginners.
How to Win More Often at Blackjack: A Few Important Tips
We all want to win at blackjack every time we play, but we also know that's impossible.
What is possible, however, is to maximise your chances to win and get better winning odds when you play blackjack online. All it takes a few simple tips.
Follow them carefully, as these blackjack tips are as important as the best blackjack betting strategy.
- Don't spend money on the 'insurance'. The insurance bet is a money-draining option created to confuse beginners. All the best blackjack strategies fail to mention is for one simple reason: no real blackjack player will ever spend their money on it.
Think about the house edge. Like we said when we went through some of the game's best betting strategies, you can't expect to win at blackjack every time you play.
Like all other casino games, the house edge is what makes sure that the casino has an advantage over the players in the long run. With that in mind, the next of our blackjack tips is one that can make a great difference for you.
Set a budget and abide to that. Experienced blackjack players know that you need to set a losing and a winning limit before the first hand is dealt.
Stop playing as soon as you hit one of them. If you lose and hit your lower limit, take a break and end your session.
If you win and you hit your highest limit, collects your winnings and leave the table. You can continue to play if you want, but you'll need to set a new bankroll and establish new limits first.
Don't miss the rules sheet. Trust me, there are more blackjack variations that you will ever play. All of them are based on the same core gameplay — but adopt rules that could break you if you aren't ready for them
One of the best parts of playing online is that the rules are always available at the table. If you are not sure you know everything about the game you want to play, click on the 'info' icon and read the rules.
Choose 3:2 over 6:5 payout. Different casinos have different payout policies - and not all of them are great for you.
Make sure you read the payout table before you begin to play a hand of real money blackjack and always choose the games with the 'regular' 3:2 payout. These are a much smarter choice compared to the 6:5 payout blackjack games you find at some online casino sites.
Use Bonuses to Find Your Favourite Blackjack Strategy
Now that you know what are the best blackjack strategies, there is only one thing left: play a few games online to find out which one works best for you.
Here's what you should fo to get the best results:
- Base all your decisions on the basic blackjack strategy
- Pick the betting strategy that suits your bankroll
- Follow all the blackjack strategy tips above to maximise your chances to win
To help you find the right games and the right betting strategy, we created a list of the best blackjack bonuses on the market.
All the sites you find in the list are licensed, pay winnings fast, and offer lots of blackjack games. Pick the ones with the best offers, register an account (it's always free), and sit at the blackjack table to start an epic battle with the dealer!
The promotion presented on this page was available at the time of writing. With some Casino promotions changing on daily basis, we suggest you to check on the site if it still available. Also, please do not forget to read the terms and conditions in full before you accept a bonus.Introduction
Not only do betting systems fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can’t even dent it. Roulette balls and dice simply have no memory. Every spin in roulette and every toss in craps is independent of all past events. In the short run, you can fool yourself into thinking a betting system works, by risking a lot to win a little. However, in the long run no betting system can withstand the test of time. The longer you play, the ratio of money lost to money bet will get closer to the expectation for that game.
In the many years that run this site, I have received thousands of e-mails from believers in betting systems. Their faith surpasses religious levels. However, in all things, the more ridiculous a belief is the more tenaciously it tends to be held. Gamblers have been looking for a betting system that works for hundreds of years, and yet the casinos are still standing.
Gambler's Fallacy
The biggest gambling myth is that an event that has not happened recently becomes overdue and more likely to occur. This is known as the “gambler’s fallacy.” Thousands of gamblers have devised betting systems that attempt to exploit the gambler’s fallacy by betting the opposite way of recent outcomes. For example, waiting for three reds in roulette and then betting on black. Hucksters sell “guaranteed” get-rich-quick betting systems that are ultimately based on the gambler’s fallacy. None of them work. If you don’t believe me here is what some other sources say on the topic:
A common gamblers’ fallacy called “the doctrine of the maturity of the chances” (or “Monte Carlo fallacy”) falsely assumes that each play in a game of chance is not independent of the others and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other possibilities. A number of “systems” have been invented by gamblers based largely on this fallacy; casino operators are happy to encourage the use of such systems and to exploit any gambler’s neglect of the strict rules of probability and independent plays. — Encyclopedia Britannica (look under “gambling”)
No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise... — Probability and Measure (second edition, page 94) by Patrick Billingsley
The number of ‘guaranteed’ betting systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamics. — The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein
Vegas Click also has a good expose of the gambler’s fallacy.
The Martingale
Every week I receive two or three emails asking me about the betting system by which a player doubles his/her bet after a loss. This system is generally played with an even money game such as the red/black bet in roulette or the pass/don’t pass bet in craps and is known as the Martingale. The idea is that by doubling your bet after a loss, you would always win enough to cover all past losses plus one unit. For example, if a player starts at $1 and loses four bets in a row, winning on the fifth, he will have lost $1+$2+$4+$8 = $15 on the four losing bets and won $16 on the fifth bet. The losses were covered and he had a profit of $1. The problem is that it is easier than you think to lose several bets in a row and run out of betting money after you’ve doubled it all away.
In order to prove this point, I created a program that simulated two systems, the Martingale and flat betting, and applied each by betting on the pass line in craps (which has a 49.29% probability of winning). The Martingale bettor would always start with a $1 bet and start the session with $255 which is enough to cover 8 losses in a row. The flat bettor would bet $1 every time. The Martingale player would play for 100 bets, or until he couldn’t cover the amount of a bet. In that case, he would stop playing and leave with the money he had left. In the event his 100th bet was a loss, he would keep betting until he either won a bet or couldn’t cover the next bet. The person flat betting would play 100 bets every time. I repeated this experiment for 1,000,000 sessions for both systems and tabulated the results. The graph below shows the results:
As you can see, the flat bettor has a bell curve with a peak at a loss of $1, and never strays very far from that peak. Usually the Martingale bettor would show a profit represented by the bell curve on the far right, peaking at $51; however, on the far left we see those times when he couldn’t cover a bet and walked away with a substantial loss. That happened for 19.65% of the sessions. Many believers in the Martingale mistakenly believe that the many wins will more than cover the few losses.
In this experiment, the average session loss for the flat bettor was $1.12, but was $4.20 for the Martingale bettor. In both cases, the ratio of money lost to money won was very close to 7/495, which is the house edge on the pass line bet in craps. This is not coincidental. No matter what system is used in the long run, this ratio will always approach the house edge. To prove this point consider the Martingale player on the pass line in craps who only desires to win $1, starts with a bet of $1, and has a bankroll of $2,047 to cover as many as 10 consecutive losses. The table below shows all possible outcomes with each probability, expected bet, and return.
Expand
Number | Final | Highest | Total | Net | Probability | Expected | Expected |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Win | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.49292929 | 0.49292929 | 0.49292929 |
1 | Win | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0.24995001 | 0.74985002 | 0.24995001 |
2 | Win | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0.12674233 | 0.88719628 | 0.12674233 |
3 | Win | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0.06426732 | 0.96400981 | 0.06426732 |
4 | Win | 16 | 31 | 1 | 0.03258808 | 1.01023035 | 0.03258808 |
5 | Win | 32 | 63 | 1 | 0.01652446 | 1.04104089 | 0.01652446 |
6 | Win | 64 | 127 | 1 | 0.00837907 | 1.06414175 | 0.00837907 |
7 | Win | 128 | 255 | 1 | 0.00424878 | 1.08343900 | 0.00424878 |
8 | Win | 256 | 511 | 1 | 0.00215443 | 1.10091479 | 0.00215443 |
9 | Win | 512 | 1023 | 1 | 0.00109245 | 1.11757574 | 0.00109245 |
10 | Win | 1024 | 2047 | 1 | 0.00055395 | 1.13393379 | 0.00055395 |
10 | Loss | 1024 | 2047 | -2047 | 0.00056984 | 1.16646467 | -1.16646467 |
Total | 1.00000000 | 11.81172639 | -0.16703451 |
The expected bet is the product of the total bet and the probability. Likewise, the expected return is the product of the total return and the probability. The last row shows this Martingale bettor to have had an average total bet of 11.81172639 and an average loss of 0.16703451. Dividing the average loss by the average bet yields .01414141. We now divide 7 by 495 (the house edge on the pass line) and we again get 0.01414141! This shows that the Martingale is neither better nor worse than flat betting when measured by the ratio of expected loss to expected bet. All betting systems are equal to flat betting when compared this way, as they should be. In other words, all betting systems are equally worthless.
Here is another experiment I conducted earlier which proves the same thing as the experiment above. This one is played against roulette testing three different systems. Player 1 flat bet a $1 each time. He was not using a betting system. Player 2 started a series of trials with a bet of $1 and increased his wager by $1 after every winning bet. A lost bet would constitute the end of a series and the next bet would be $1. Player 3 also started a series of bets with a bet of $1 but used a doubling strategy in that after a losing bet of $x he would bet $2x (the Martingale). A winning bet would constitute the end of a series and the next bet would be $1. To make it realistic I put a maximum bet on player 3 of $200. Below are the results of that experiment:
Player 1
- Total amount wagered = $1,000,000,000
- Average wager = $1.00
- Total loss = $52,667,912
- Expected loss = $52,631,579
- Ratio of loss to money wagered = 0.052668
Player 2
- Total amount wagered = $1,899,943,349
- Average wager = $1.90
- Total loss = $100,056,549
- Expected loss = $99,997,018
- Ratio of loss to money wagered = 0.052663
Player 3
- Total amount wagered = $5,744,751,450
- Average wager = $5.74
- Total loss = $302,679,372
- Expected loss = $302,355,340
- Ratio of loss to money wagered = 0.052688
Doubling Bet Until You Win Powerball
As you can see the ratio of money lost to money wagered is always close to the normal house advantage of 1/19 ≈ 0.052632. In conclusion, varying of bet size depending on recent past wins or losses makes no difference in the long run outcome and is no different than always betting the same.
A Third Experiment
“An Old Timer’s Guide to Beating the Craps Table” was a betting system that makes big promises about turning the craps tables into your own personal cash register. I offered to test his system for free. Here are the results.
The Cancellation Betting System
Despite all my warnings about betting systems, readers continually ask me to suggest one. To satisfy those who enjoy playing systems I have done a full explanation and analysis of the cancellation betting system.
Don't Waste Your Money
The Internet is full of people selling betting systems with promises of beating the casino at games of luck. Those who sell these systems are the present day equivalent of the 19th century snake oil salesmen. Under no circumstances should you waste one penny on any gambling system. Every time one has been put to a computer simulation it failed and showed the same ratio of losses to money bet as flat betting. If you ask a system salesman about this you likely will get a reply such as, “In real life nobody plays millions of trials in the casino.” You’re likely to also hear that his/her system works in real life, but not when used against a computer simulation. It is interesting that professionals use computers to model real-life problems in just about every field of study, yet when it comes to betting systems computer analysis becomes “worthless and unreliable,” as the salesman of one system put it. In any event, such an excuse misses the point; the computer runs billions of trials simply to prove that a system is unsound. If it won’t work on a computer, it won’t work in the casino.
Gambling systems have been around for as long as gambling has. No system has ever been proven to work. From an inside source, I know that system salesmen go from selling one kind of system to another. It is a dirty business by which they steal ideas from each other, and are always attempting to rehash old systems as something new.
System salesmen usually promise ridiculous advantages. For example, even with just a 1% advantage on an even money bet, it would not be difficult to parlay $100 into $1,000,000 by betting in proportion to bankroll. I was asked to prove this claim so I wrote a computer simulation based on the toss of a biased coin, with a 50.5% chance of winning. At all times the player bet 1% of his bankroll, rounded down to the nearest dollar. However, if a winning bet would put the player over $1,000,000 then he only bet as much as he needed to get to exactly $1,000,000. In addition, I ran simulations with a 2% advantage and for a starting bankroll of $1,000. Following are the results of all four tests.
$100 Bankroll, 1% Advantage
- Bets won = 7,182,811,698 (50.4999%)
- Bets lost = 7,040,599,544 (49.5001%)
- Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 79,438 (83.019%)
- Player went bust first = 16,249 (16.981%)
- Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 174,972 (364.5 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
$100 Bankroll, 2% Advantage
- Bets won = 7,027,117,205 (51.0000%)
- Bets lost = 6,751,539,769 (49.0000%)
- Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 215,702 (98.099%)
- Player went bust first = 4,180 (1.901%)
- Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 63,775 (132.9 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
$1,000 Bankroll, 1% Advantage
- Bets won = 5,213,026,190 (50.4999%)
- Bets lost = 5,109,817,544 (49.5001%)
- Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 74,818 (99.0285%)
- Player went bust first = 734 (0.9715%)
- Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 137,208 (285.8 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
$1,000 Bankroll, 2% Advantage
- Bets won = 6,332,837,070 (50.9996%)
- Bets lost = 6,084,596,671 (49.0004%)
- Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 267,445 (99.9996%)
- Player went bust first = 1 (0.0004%)
- Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 46,428 (96.7 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
These simulations prove that with just a small advantage of as little as 1% and a bankroll of as little as $100 you can grind your way to a million dollars through the gambling equivalent of compound interest. Yet you never hear of this actually happening. Could it be that these gambling systems don’t work after all?!
Here are some examples of system salesmen who try to take advantage of the mathematically challenged. There are hundreds of sites like these on the Internet, and this list is just a sampling. Frequently these sites vanish in the middle of the night, or suddenly direct traffic to a porn site. Please do let me know if any of these links don’t work or take you to other than the intended place.
Also, be warned that there are many others out there selling get rich quick gambling schemes that claim they are not betting systems. These sites usually throw out lots of fancy physics words like “chaos” and “fractals,” but display no evidence they know what these words mean. In the past, I have listed some such sites above but got angry letters claiming I shouldn’t criticize what I don’t understand. Personally, I feel that every method claiming an easy way to beat the casinos is a scam, and I don’t need to understand whatever the secret is. However, to be totally fair, I’ll only list betting systems above since those have been mathematically debunked by computer simulations. If anyone did find a truly easy way to beat the casinos, why aren’t they getting rich doing it?
The Wizard of Odds Challenge
For about six years, from 1999 to 2005, I offered $20,000 to anyone with a betting system that could show a profit over a one billion hand computer simulation. Here you can find the rules of the challenge. However, in all this time I only had one serious taker and hundreds of people wasting my time, pretending to be interested but never following through. So in January 2005, I took down the offer.
My webmaster, Michael Bluejay, now offers essentially the same challenge on his own site, VegasClick.com. If you accept his challenge, and win, I will be happy to state as such on the front page of this site, for proving the experts wrong.
A Fourth Experiment
On October 19, 2004, Daniel Rainsong accepted my challenge. Mr. Rainsong was so confident he would win he doubled the stakes to my $40,000 against his $4,000. Although the rules of the challenge are based on craps or roulette I allowed this challenge to be based on blackjack rules with a house edge of only 0.26%. Can a betting system beat a game with a house edge this small and a 1,028 bet spread? Visit my Rainsong Challenge page for all the details.
Please, Don't Write
I no longer respond to e-mails that suggest a player can beat a negative expectation game over the long run with a betting system. Such e-mail is deleted on sight. I have said all I have to say on the topic here and in my Gambling FAQ.
If you really want to discuss the topic, then I invite you not to do so at my forum at Wizard of Vegas, but instead one where you will be among like-minded people, like the forum atJohn Patrick's site (Update: This site has, not surprisingly, gone the way of the dodo bird).
Internal Links
- Oscar's Grind betting system.
- Labouchere betting system.
- Fibonacci betting system.
- Martingale betting system.
- D'Alembert betting system.
- Keefer roulette system.
External Links
- Betting Systems and the House Edge, an article by Ph.D. mathematician Eliot Jacobson debunking betting systems.
- Betting Systems, an article by Michael Bluejay of VegasClick.
- German translation of this article.
- Debunking the “No Risk Don’t Come” betting system.